Challenge cup

Devils86

Devils86

Well-Known Member
#85
#85
Update on this...

Giants are virtually guaranteed to qualify now. Theres only 1 pair of results of the last remaining 2 games that would lead to them not at least qualifying for the Play-In game in Nottingham.

That combination is Stars beating Giants in Regulation on Sunday in Belfast; after Clan had beaten Stars in OT/Penalties the night before in Dundee. I've spent too many long boring minutes working that out - but please do correct me if I'm wrong.

Giants win against Stars whether in Reg or OT, they top the group.

When the games are finished the maximum each team could get (if Giants won, Clan won, and Stars won twice - irrespective of regulation or OT) in terms of win % would be (NOTE: I got this wrong before, its not POINTS % but WIN %. So my Guildford post above could be wrong - but I can't be arsed to check!):
Giants 7 wins from 12 = 58.3%
Clan 8 wins from 12 = 66.6%
Stars 8 wins from 12 = 66.6%

Steelers have 70% and are the top seed whatever happens. Blaze and Panthers have 60%.

Giants can't host the Play-In game (if they get there) as they will have the lower win % compared to Panthers. But yet they have the highest chance of progressing (either as group winners or in the Play-In) due to Reg Wins!

Chances (ignoring skills etc of each team, just straight maths) of elimination altogether:
Giants 1/16; Clan 7/16; Stars 1/2 (8/16)

Chances of topping the group (as above):
Giants 9/16; Clan 3/16; Stars 1/4 (4/16)

My head hurts...

Notes:
Possible combinations given Giants v Stars; and Clan v Stars (I've deliberately ignored home v away to make it easier to picture!)

Giants Win in Regulation/Clan Win in Regulation Giants 17; Clan 16; Stars 13 (Play-In: Clan v Panthers in Glasgow)
GIants Win in Regulation/Clan Win in OT Giants 17; Clan 16; Stars 14 (Play-In: Clan v Panthers in Glasgow)
Giants Win in Regulation/Stars Win in Regulation Giants 17; Stars 15; Clan 14 (Play-In: Panthers v Stars in Nottingham)
GIants Win in Regulation/Stars Win in OT Giants 17; Clan 15; Stars 15 (Play-In: Panthers v Clan in Nottingham)
GIants Win in OT/Clan Win in Regulation Giants 17; Clan 16; Stars 14 (Play-In: Clan v Panthers in Glasgow)
Giants Win in OT/Clan win in OT Giants 17; Clan 16; Stars 15 (Play-In: Clan v Panthers in Glasgow)
Giants Win in OT/Stars win in Regulation Giants 17; Stars 16; Clan 14 (Play-In: Panthers v Stars in Nottingham)
Giants Win in OT/Stars win in OT Giants 17; Stars 16; Clan 15 (Play-In: Panthers v Stars in Nottingham)
Stars Win in Regulation/Clan Win in Regulation Clan 16; Giants 15; Stars 15 (Giants 2nd on Reg Wins, Play In: Panthers v Giants in Nottingham)
Stars Win in Regulation/Clan Win in OT Clan 16; Stars 16; Giants 15 (Clan 1st on Reg Wins, Play In: Panthers v Stars in Nottingham)
Stars Win in Regulation/Stars Win in Regulation Stars 17; Giants 15; Clan 14 (Play-In: Panthers v Giants in Nottingham)
Stars Win in Regulation/Stars Win in OT Stars 17: Giants 15; Clan 15 (Giants 2nd on Reg Wins, Play In: Panthers v Giants in Nottingham
Stars Win in OT/Clan Win in Regulation Clan 16; Giants 16; Stars 15 (Clan 1st on total wins, Play In: Panthers v Giants in Nottingham)
Stars Win in OT/Clan win in OT Giants 16; Clan 16; Stars 16 (Order due to Reg Wins, Play In: Clan v Panthers in Glasgow)
Stars Win in OT/Stars win in Regulation Stars 17; Giants 16; Clan 14 (Play-In: Panthers v Giants in Nottingham)
Stars Win in OT/Stars win in OT Stars 17; Giants 16; Clan 15 (Play-In: Panthers v Giants in Nottingham)

(Edit: Annoyingly when I submit this post a lot of the spaces are removed - so the above doesn't line up as nicely as when I wrote it!)
 
P

Phinktastique

Well-Known Member
#87
#87
Not done and dusted yet I reckon - we know how Belfast can just claw back into these types of important games and score in bunches. Wouldn’t bet against them winning in OT, knowing them!!
 
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