looks like we are in a battle with sheffield for 3rd place and nottingham and belfast for first.we need a clear out in the summer because some of these players are not up to the level required to help a team challenge for silverware.i just hope our recruitment next summer is better because we've gone backwards.
steelers vs Devils - League - 25th Jan 26 - FO 16:00
- Thread starter James
- Start date
Bad day at the office. Not the end of the world. A disjointed and poor performance. I’m sure we’ll have a few more of those before the end of the season but as one poster put it… Brandt is playing out of his skin and deserves his top line minutes but we simply shouldn’t have a misfiring first line that allows that.
Not all is lost we play Nottingham 4 times, 2h 2 a, Sheffield 3 times 2 h 1 a, and Belfast 1 h and 2 a if we can give 60 mins in ea h of those games we are in with a chance 2nd or 3rd but need to be focused in e very 1 of those games, the players will know their contracts are up soon so it's down to them to get stuck in and play for the badge and not cruise through games thinking of summer hols like some are already on the beach on times, what's happened to our D well under par of late considering we were top of least goals concede few weeks ago, so come on devils all is not lost
At the end of last season and the poor standard of hockey we witnessed, many asked for a team that would entertain and even if we lost if the entertainment was there, that was ok.The organisation built a roster of 'character' players as Franny confirmed on a podcast I believe. This season we have had many games where we have been entertained, some we've won and some we've lost; like wise games win or lose that we haven't been entertained. I was always worried that we had sacrificed 'skill' for 'character' and eventually results and performance would reflect this. We need a more balanced approach to recruitment next season because when entertainment and skill are not on show then we have games like tonight and others that we have watched the season. I'm not criticising the work ethic of all players may I add. I know budget determines the type of players we can realistically look at and ours might not be as big as other teams but I think a shift back to the centre ground is needed . Many teams around the league seem to find little gems as we have too in the past. As for this season,lots of games still to play, who knows what will be!
Well hopefully we will get a Thommo team next season, and not fill it full of Nth Americans. We sure need quite a few changes, for me at least 6 imports. We are probably fifth in the budget spend , and maybe 5th in crowd figures, so to be in the chase we always have to punch above our weight, and we often do that but when we are lousy we really are lousy. Steelers are far from a very good team but tonight’s margins were huge, we really were that poor, our lads didn’t earn their money tonight we struggled to beat a okay team last night, but we were never really in it tonight we made a pretty good team look like championship winners. Tonight when we attacked we hoped, and when Sheffield attacked we expected and that’s a great shame.
I am pretty sure we’re not going to win all our games against the other big three for the remainder of the season, especially playing like we did this afternoon, but before tonight we had 2 away games in Sheffield, 2 in Belfast and 2 in Nottingham, and I don’t know if any/many of us would have truly thought we’d win all 6 of those match-ups in the arenas. We’d love to, but 3 or 4 wins out of those 6 fixtures would objectively be a good return in most seasons. So I don't see the result as a disaster but now we have to try to win 3 or 4 of the 5 remaining games at least, but we’re not doing too badly so far this season against the other three teams:
The mini-league of results between the 4 top teams currently is:
1). Cardiff 5-2-1 = 11 pts (68.75% pts)
2). Sheffield 5-4-1 = 11 pts (55% pts)
3). Belfast 5-3-0 = 10 pts (62.5% pts)
4). Nottingham 2-2-4 = 8 pts (50% pts)
However, the mini-league for the top 4 against the remainder of the other teams is currently:
1). Belfast 19-2-3 = 41 pts (85.42% pts)
2). Nottingham 19-3-1= 39 pts (84.78% pts)
3). Cardiff 17-5-3 = 37 pts (74% pts)
4). Sheffield 16-6-1 = 33 pts (71.74% pts)
Over the years, it’s more common that results against the non-title contenders decides the league rather than those against your main rivals as we’re always going to lose points to the main contenders, and so far again this season this is proving true with Belfast and Nottingham looking the main contenders right now due to their significantly better results against the lower teams.
Nottingham has 12 home games to go, and 11 away games. They have to play Belfast 4 times (2H & 2A), Sheffield twice (1H & 1A), and Cardiff 4 times (2H & 2A). So 10 games against the other top 3, and 12 against the rest of the league.
Belfast has 12 home games to go, and 10 away games. They have to play Nottingham 4 times (2H & 2A), Sheffield 3 times (1H & 2A), and Cardiff 3 times (2H & 1A). So 10 games against the other top 3, and 12 against the rest of the league.
Sheffield has 11 home games to go, and 10 away games. They have to play Belfast 3 times (2H & 1A), Nottingham twice (1H & 1A), and Cardiff 3 times (1H & 2A). So 8 games against the other top 3, and 13 against the rest of the league.
Cardiff has 10 games against the other top 3 and 11 against the rest of the league.
So on a gloomy evening (weather and result wise) for a bit of fun, my prediction from my analysis and simulations is the league winner this season will have around 80 points (plus or minus 4 points). A caveat is that 80 points might not be enough to win the league if one team goes on a hot streak over the next two months, but any team that achieves that number will be up there fighting given the amount of points the other top 3 are going to lose in the run-in with the number of fixtures the top 4 have between ourselves/themselves.
For us to get to 80 points we will have to aim to be perfect against the ‘rest of the league’ and try to win at least half of the games against the ‘top 3’ to get to 80 points. Or another way is to win all remaining home games and half the away games, again that will get us to 80 points.
For every game we lose against the ‘rest of the league’ and/or at home, we will need to up our win count against our main rivals. Or every win against our main rivals will make the job easier, obviously.
I am going to keep a track of our progress against this prediction and hypothetically I think we’ll be right there in the mix if we can get another 32 points from the remaining 21 games (tough though as that would mean upping our level as it equates to 76.2% points percentage from now on (the equivalent of just over a 3 point weekend from here on in) and we are currently on a 73% points percentage.)
Of course, it’ll be easier for Belfast and Nottingham to get to that number as they've lost fewer points than us so far, so I’m hoping they lose points at any opportunity.
My overall point is it's looking tough to overcome the two teams who've lost fewer points than us, but one result in Sheffield isn't a disaster (at least without knowing the context of what is to come in the next few weeks ahead) and we have a long way to go - and we'll soon see how well this post ages and have a chuckle about how foolish it is to make predictions on a Sunday evening in late January!
The mini-league of results between the 4 top teams currently is:
1). Cardiff 5-2-1 = 11 pts (68.75% pts)
2). Sheffield 5-4-1 = 11 pts (55% pts)
3). Belfast 5-3-0 = 10 pts (62.5% pts)
4). Nottingham 2-2-4 = 8 pts (50% pts)
However, the mini-league for the top 4 against the remainder of the other teams is currently:
1). Belfast 19-2-3 = 41 pts (85.42% pts)
2). Nottingham 19-3-1= 39 pts (84.78% pts)
3). Cardiff 17-5-3 = 37 pts (74% pts)
4). Sheffield 16-6-1 = 33 pts (71.74% pts)
Over the years, it’s more common that results against the non-title contenders decides the league rather than those against your main rivals as we’re always going to lose points to the main contenders, and so far again this season this is proving true with Belfast and Nottingham looking the main contenders right now due to their significantly better results against the lower teams.
Nottingham has 12 home games to go, and 11 away games. They have to play Belfast 4 times (2H & 2A), Sheffield twice (1H & 1A), and Cardiff 4 times (2H & 2A). So 10 games against the other top 3, and 12 against the rest of the league.
Belfast has 12 home games to go, and 10 away games. They have to play Nottingham 4 times (2H & 2A), Sheffield 3 times (1H & 2A), and Cardiff 3 times (2H & 1A). So 10 games against the other top 3, and 12 against the rest of the league.
Sheffield has 11 home games to go, and 10 away games. They have to play Belfast 3 times (2H & 1A), Nottingham twice (1H & 1A), and Cardiff 3 times (1H & 2A). So 8 games against the other top 3, and 13 against the rest of the league.
Cardiff has 10 games against the other top 3 and 11 against the rest of the league.
So on a gloomy evening (weather and result wise) for a bit of fun, my prediction from my analysis and simulations is the league winner this season will have around 80 points (plus or minus 4 points). A caveat is that 80 points might not be enough to win the league if one team goes on a hot streak over the next two months, but any team that achieves that number will be up there fighting given the amount of points the other top 3 are going to lose in the run-in with the number of fixtures the top 4 have between ourselves/themselves.
For us to get to 80 points we will have to aim to be perfect against the ‘rest of the league’ and try to win at least half of the games against the ‘top 3’ to get to 80 points. Or another way is to win all remaining home games and half the away games, again that will get us to 80 points.
For every game we lose against the ‘rest of the league’ and/or at home, we will need to up our win count against our main rivals. Or every win against our main rivals will make the job easier, obviously.
I am going to keep a track of our progress against this prediction and hypothetically I think we’ll be right there in the mix if we can get another 32 points from the remaining 21 games (tough though as that would mean upping our level as it equates to 76.2% points percentage from now on (the equivalent of just over a 3 point weekend from here on in) and we are currently on a 73% points percentage.)
Of course, it’ll be easier for Belfast and Nottingham to get to that number as they've lost fewer points than us so far, so I’m hoping they lose points at any opportunity.
My overall point is it's looking tough to overcome the two teams who've lost fewer points than us, but one result in Sheffield isn't a disaster (at least without knowing the context of what is to come in the next few weeks ahead) and we have a long way to go - and we'll soon see how well this post ages and have a chuckle about how foolish it is to make predictions on a Sunday evening in late January!
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